# Price as Probability

The price of a YES share at any moment is the market's implied probability that the outcome will occur. A YES share trading at $0.72 means the market's collective belief is a 72% chance the event happens.

This is a fundamentally different model from traditional bookmaker odds. There is no house edge baked into the price. The market finds its own equilibrium through continuous trading, and prices update in real time as information arrives.

## How prices move

Prices move when buyers and sellers disagree on the probability of an outcome. If new information arrives (a team sheet is released, a player picks up an injury, a goal is scored), traders who act on that information push the price toward the new consensus.

A concrete example: a market for "Will Erling Haaland score in the next match?" might open at $0.55 and drift to $0.82 as team news confirms he is starting. A penalty shootout market will update sharply as kicks land. The mechanism is identical whether the market resolves in 30 seconds or 30 days.

## Reading a market

| Price | Implied Probability | Interpretation                              |
| ----- | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------- |
| $0.05 | 5%                  | Market considers this outcome very unlikely |
| $0.35 | 35%                 | Market leans toward NO but outcome is live  |
| $0.50 | 50%                 | Market has no strong view                   |
| $0.72 | 72%                 | Market leans toward YES                     |
| $0.94 | 94%                 | Market considers this outcome highly likely |

Prices are always displayed as dollar amounts on Pitchcast, not as fractional odds or decimal odds. A YES share at $0.72 is unambiguous: buy it if you believe the true probability is above 72%, sell it if you believe it is below.

## Efficient markets

The prediction market model is more informationally efficient than bookmaker odds because there is no margin to overcome. A bookmaker offering 72% implied probability on an outcome has baked in a spread that guarantees their profit regardless of the outcome. On Pitchcast, the price reflects what traders actually believe, not what a bookmaker needs to charge to stay profitable.

This makes prices on Pitchcast a meaningful signal, not a pricing artefact.

{% hint style="info" %}
Pitchcast always leads with price (probability) rather than odds notation. The interface is designed to reinforce the mental model that a share price is a probability estimate.
{% endhint %}


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